Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 3-2

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

6–1

at

Home

Maple Leafs

52-26-4

FLA 55%TOR 45%

You didn't pick this one.

Scotiabank Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored FLA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers
Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P318:54Nicholas Robertson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (3), Steven Lorentz (2)6–1
  • P39:10Sam Bennett Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (4), Brad Marchand (7)6–0
  • P36:23A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (1), Nate Schmidt (4)5–0
  • P214:01Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (6), Eetu Luostarinen (7)4–0
  • P210:05Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (7), Gustav Forsling (2)3–0
  • P26:08Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (3), Matthew Tkachuk (6)2–0
  • P114:38Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Jesper Boqvist (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P114:38Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Jesper Boqvist (1)FLA 1 – 0 TOR · FLA 55% → 70% +16
  2. P26:08Dmitry Kulikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (3), Matthew Tkachuk (6)FLA 2 – 0 TOR · FLA 72% → 86% +14
  3. P210:05Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (7), Gustav Forsling (2)FLA 3 – 0 TOR · FLA 87% → 95% +8
  4. P214:01Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (6), Eetu Luostarinen (7)FLA 4 – 0 TOR · FLA 96% → 99% +3
  5. P36:23A.J. Greer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (1), Nate Schmidt (4)FLA 5 – 0 TOR · FLA >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 55%

LeanHit
FLA 55%TOR 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 55%
ML FLA -135 / TOR +115
Pre-line forecast
FLA 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 48%
Ratings vs. market
−7.1 pts
FLA: Elo 48.1%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
FLA -124
TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.9 – 2.6 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATORWhy
Team rating15591556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5−14FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +13 EloTOR 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 55.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 54.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTOR
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.39th of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.88th of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.58th of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share48.9%23rd of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage91.2%3rd of 32
25th of 323–7Last 109–11st of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home27–147th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersMaple Leafs
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATOR
Puck line42–4947–45
Last 105–57–3
Favorite30–4525–37
Underdog12–422–8
Overs–unders44–4747–45
Overs–unders, last 108–26–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 7–5 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.