Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Max PaciorettyGoals1
- Max DomiAssists1
- Max PaciorettyPoints1
PanthersScoring summary
- P314:17Max Pacioretty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Bobby McMann (2), Max Domi (4)2–0
- P36:20Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (11)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P36:20Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (11)TOR 1 – 0 FLA · TOR 43% → 72% +29TOR 43% → 72%+29 pts
- P314:17Max Pacioretty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Bobby McMann (2), Max Domi (4)TOR 2 – 0 FLA · TOR 86% → 99% +13TOR 86% → 99%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 65%
- ML TOR +175 / FLA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -186
- TOR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.3 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +5 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +71 Elo | FLA 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3225–16 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–46 | 43–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 31–45 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 48–45 | 45–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–8 FLA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.
- May 14FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 11TOR 0 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 64%Hit
- May 9TOR 4 @ FLA 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 67%Hit
- May 7FLA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 59%Miss
- May 5FLA 4 @ TOR 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 53%Miss
- Apr 8TOR 1 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 60%Hit
- Apr 2FLA 2 @ TOR 3Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Mar 13FLA 3 @ TOR 2Picked FLA 55%Hit