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Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalFLA leads series 3-0

Away

Hurricanes

47-30-5

2–6

at

Home

Panthers

47-31-4

CAR 44%FLA 56%

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Amerant Bank Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored CAR favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P311:01Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (3), Sebastian Aho (8)2–6
  • P310:37Brad Marchand Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Jesper Boqvist (3)1–6
  • P39:31Aleksander Barkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (2)1–5
  • P36:55Aleksander Barkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10)1–4
  • P36:26Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (5), Matthew Tkachuk (9)1–3
  • P31:29Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (10), Aaron Ekblad (7)1–2
  • P214:51Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (3), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4)1–1
  • P112:07Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (9), Aleksander Barkov (9)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P112:07Niko Mikkola Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (9), Aleksander Barkov (9)CAR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +15
  2. P214:51Logan Stankoven Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (3), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4)CAR 1 – 1 FLA · CAR 25% → 46% +21
  3. P31:29Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Evan Rodrigues (10), Aaron Ekblad (7)CAR 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 53% → 77% +24
  4. P36:26Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (5), Matthew Tkachuk (9)CAR 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 80% → 95% +15
  5. P36:55Aleksander Barkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10)CAR 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 95% → >99% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 56%

LeanHit
CAR 44%FLA 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 56%
ML CAR +120 / FLA -140
Pre-line forecast
FLA 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 61%
Ratings vs. market
+5.1 pts
FLA: Elo 61.3%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
FLA -128
CAR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 2.6 – 2.9 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARFLAWhy
Team rating15501577Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−10+7CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +80 EloFLA 61.3%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 61.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 61.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatFLA
10th of 323.2Goals scored3.114th of 32
10th of 322.8Goals allowed2.76th of 32
9th of 32+0.4Margin+0.410th of 32
1st of 3256.0%Shot share54.6%2nd of 32
26th of 3289.3%Save percentage90.5%10th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 103–725th of 32
22nd of 3216–25Road vs home26–149th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesPanthers
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARFLA
Puck line43–5146–50
Last 104–66–4
Favorite40–4632–46
Underdog3–514–4
Overs–unders41–5347–49
Overs–unders, last 104–67–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 3–5 FLA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.