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Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

FinalCAR leads series 2-1

Away

Capitals

51-22-9

0–4

at

Home

Hurricanes

47-30-5

WSH 32%CAR 68%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored WSH favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Capitals
    Hurricanes

    Scoring summary

    • P316:44Jackson Blake Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Seth Jarvis (5)0–4
    • P33:14Eric Robinson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Jack Roslovic (2)0–3
    • P218:57Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (2), Taylor Hall (3)0–2
    • P212:34Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P212:34Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneWSH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 80% +18
    2. P218:57Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (2), Taylor Hall (3)WSH 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 81% → 93% +12
    3. P33:14Eric Robinson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Jack Roslovic (2)WSH 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 95% → 99% +4
    4. P316:44Jackson Blake Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Seth Jarvis (5)WSH 0 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Hurricanes 68%

    SolidHit
    WSH 32%CAR 68%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

    Market
    CAR 68%
    ML WSH +200 / CAR -240
    Pre-line forecast
    CAR 64%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CAR 55%
    Ratings vs. market
    −12.5 pts
    CAR: Elo 55.4%, market 67.9%
    Fair odds
    CAR -212
    WSH +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    WSH 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorWSHCARWhy
    Team rating15421548Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+6+2WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCAR +38 EloCAR 55.4%
    Market-implied ratingsCAR 66.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCAR 64.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCAR 67.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
    WSHStatCAR
    2nd of 323.5Goals scored3.210th of 32
    9th of 322.8Goals allowed2.810th of 32
    3rd of 32+0.7Margin+0.49th of 32
    14th of 3250.4%Shot share56.0%1st of 32
    15th of 3290.0%Save percentage89.3%26th of 32
    22nd of 324–6Last 103–725th of 32
    2nd of 3225–16Road vs home31–101st of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    CapitalsHurricanes
    14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonWSHCAR
    Puck line51–3840–49
    Last 106–43–7
    Favorite24–2837–44
    Underdog27–103–5
    Overs–unders45–4439–50
    Overs–unders, last 103–74–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    WSH 5–5 CAR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.