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Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast

FinalWSH leads series 2-1

Away

Capitals

51-22-9

3–6

at

Home

Canadiens

40-31-11

WSH 52%MTL 48%

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Bell Centre · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.

MTL favored WSH favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3MTL50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Capitals
Canadiens

Scoring summary

  • P317:35Alex Newhook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (2), Mike Matheson (1)3–6
  • P313:23Juraj Slafkovský Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cole Caufield (1)3–5
  • P34:17Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: David Savard (1), Joel Armia (1)3–4
  • P32:39Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), Anthony Beauvillier (3)3–3
  • P219:51Cole Caufield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (3)2–3
  • P210:47Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1), Lars Eller (1)2–2
  • P28:37Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none1–2
  • P119:07Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (1), Jake Evans (1)1–1
  • P13:20Connor McMichael Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (1), Rasmus Sandin (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P28:37Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneWSH 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 48% → 68% +19
  2. P210:47Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1), Lars Eller (1)WSH 2 – 2 MTL · WSH 31% → 52% +20
  3. P219:51Cole Caufield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (3)WSH 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 49% → 73% +24
  4. P32:39Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), Anthony Beauvillier (3)WSH 3 – 3 MTL · WSH 26% → 51% +25
  5. P34:17Christian Dvorak Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: David Savard (1), Joel Armia (1)WSH 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 49% → 75% +26

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 52%

Toss-upMiss
WSH 52%MTL 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
WSH 52%
ML WSH -120 / MTL +100
Pre-line forecast
WSH 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 55%
Ratings vs. market
+2.4 pts
WSH: Elo 54.5%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
WSH -109
MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WSH 2.8 – 2.7 MTL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHMTLWhy
Team rating15381478Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+7+1WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +32 EloWSH 54.5%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 51.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 52.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Washington Capitals and Montreal Canadiens compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatMTL
2nd of 323.5Goals scored3.017th of 32
9th of 322.8Goals allowed3.223rd of 32
3rd of 32+0.7Margin−0.222nd of 32
14th of 3250.4%Shot share46.8%29th of 32
15th of 3290.0%Save percentage89.6%23rd of 32
22nd of 324–6Last 107–33rd of 32
2nd of 3225–16Road vs home23–1816th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CapitalsCanadiens
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHMTL
Puck line47–3749–35
Last 103–76–4
Favorite22–274–10
Underdog25–1045–25
Overs–unders43–4144–40
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 5–3 MTL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.