Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Josh AndersonAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Connor McMichael Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Tom Wilson (2)1–3
- P24:47Dylan Strome Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (2), Ryan Leonard (1)1–2
- P23:47Connor McMichael Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (1)1–1
- P21:16Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (1), Brendan Gallagher (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:16Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (1), Brendan Gallagher (1)MTL 1 – 0 WSH · MTL 41% → 59% +18MTL 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P23:47Connor McMichael Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (1)MTL 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 41% → 59% +19WSH 41% → 59%+19 pts
- P24:47Dylan Strome Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (2), Ryan Leonard (1)MTL 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 59% → 76% +17WSH 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P319:58Connor McMichael Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Tom Wilson (2)MTL 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 100% → 100% +0WSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 62%
- ML MTL +150 / WSH -180
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -161
- MTL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +95 Elo | WSH 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–34 | 46–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 45–24 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 44–39 | 43–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–4 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.