Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Matt GrzelcykAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:01Philip Tomasino Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (35), Matt Grzelcyk (39)2–5
- P38:46Danton Heinen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P216:56Alex Ovechkin Goal (44) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (53), Pierre-Luc Dubois (46)2–3
- P211:56Sidney Crosby Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (13), Connor Dewar (6)1–3
- P27:19Bryan Rust Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (58), Ville Koivunen (7)1–2
- P14:54Bryan Rust Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (6), Matt Grzelcyk (38)1–1
- P14:08Connor McMichael Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:08Connor McMichael Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (32)WSH 1 – 0 PIT · WSH 47% → 62% +15WSH 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P14:54Bryan Rust Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (6), Matt Grzelcyk (38)WSH 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 38% → 53% +15PIT 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P27:19Bryan Rust Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (58), Ville Koivunen (7)WSH 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 52% → 71% +19PIT 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P216:56Alex Ovechkin Goal (44) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (53), Pierre-Luc Dubois (46)WSH 2 – 3 PIT · WSH 11% → 26% +15WSH 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P38:46Danton Heinen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 2 – 4 PIT · PIT 81% → 96% +15PIT 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML WSH +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +2 | WSH: Clay Stevenson (no track record yet) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +35 Elo | WSH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.3%26th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3225–15 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–35 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–26 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 25–9 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 42–39 | 44–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.