Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Tom Wilson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (1)1–3
- P39:26Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Sebastian Aho (6)1–2
- P31:54John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (4), Dylan Strome (8)0–2
- P22:16Connor McMichael Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:16Connor McMichael Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 43% → 62% +18WSH 43% → 62%+18 pts
- P31:54John Carlson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (4), Dylan Strome (8)CAR 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 71% → 89% +18WSH 71% → 89%+18 pts
- P39:26Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Sebastian Aho (6)CAR 1 – 2 WSH · CAR 5% → 22% +17CAR 5% → 22%+17 pts
- P319:00Tom Wilson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (1)CAR 1 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML CAR -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 46.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +23 Elo | WSH 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–48 | 50–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–43 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–49 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.