Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalWSH wins series 4-1

Away

Canadiens

40-31-11

1–4

at

Home

Capitals

51-22-9

MTL 36%WSH 64%

You didn't pick this one.

Capital One Arena · ESPN, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored MTL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%MTL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens
Capitals

Scoring summary

  • P319:34Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2)1–4
  • P32:40Emil Heineman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Joel Armia (2), Oliver Kapanen (1)1–3
  • P216:59Tom Wilson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (1), Dylan Strome (7)0–3
  • P111:15Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Tom Wilson (3)0–2
  • P19:12Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (6)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:12Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (6)MTL 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 63% → 77% +14
  2. P111:15Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Tom Wilson (3)MTL 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 77% → 87% +10
  3. P216:59Tom Wilson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (1), Dylan Strome (7)MTL 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 92% → 98% +6
  4. P32:40Emil Heineman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Joel Armia (2), Oliver Kapanen (1)MTL 1 – 3 WSH · MTL 1% → 6% +5
  5. P319:34Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2)MTL 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 100% → 100% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 64%

SolidHit
MTL 36%WSH 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
WSH 64%
ML MTL +170 / WSH -200
Pre-line forecast
WSH 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 63%
Ratings vs. market
−0.8 pts
WSH: Elo 63.5%, market 64.3%
Fair odds
WSH -180
MTL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MTL 2.3 – 3.2 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMTLWSHWhy
Team rating14781538Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+4MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +96 EloWSH 63.5%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 63.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 63.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 64.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
MTLStatWSH
17th of 323.0Goals scored3.52nd of 32
23rd of 323.2Goals allowed2.89th of 32
22nd of 32−0.2Margin+0.73rd of 32
29th of 3246.8%Shot share50.4%14th of 32
23rd of 3289.6%Save percentage90.0%15th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 104–622nd of 32
18th of 3217–24Road vs home26–1510th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanadiensCapitals
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMTLWSH
Puck line50–3648–38
Last 106–44–6
Favorite4–1023–28
Underdog46–2625–10
Overs–unders46–4045–41
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MTL 4–6 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.