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Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalCAR wins series 4-1

Away

Hurricanes

47-30-5

3–1

at

Home

Capitals

51-22-9

CAR 59%WSH 41%

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Capital One Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored CAR favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Hurricanes

Scoring summary

  • P319:33Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
  • P318:01Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2), Seth Jarvis (6)2–1
  • P113:41Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none1–1
  • P19:38Jordan Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (5)1–0

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:38Jordan Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (5)CAR 1 – 0 WSH · CAR 58% → 73% +15
  2. P113:41Anthony Beauvillier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 27% → 42% +15
  3. P318:01Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2), Seth Jarvis (6)CAR 2 – 1 WSH · CAR 52% → 98% +46
  4. P319:33Seth Jarvis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 1 WSH · CAR >99% → 100% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 59%

LeanHit
CAR 59%WSH 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
CAR 59%
ML CAR -160 / WSH +135
Pre-line forecast
CAR 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 49%
Ratings vs. market
−10.4 pts
CAR: Elo 48.7%, market 59.1%
Fair odds
CAR -145
WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 3.0 – 2.5 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARWSHWhy
Team rating15571533Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5+2CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +9 EloWSH 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 58.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 56.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 59.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatWSH
10th of 323.2Goals scored3.52nd of 32
10th of 322.8Goals allowed2.89th of 32
9th of 32+0.4Margin+0.73rd of 32
1st of 3256.0%Shot share50.4%14th of 32
26th of 3289.3%Save percentage90.0%15th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 104–622nd of 32
22nd of 3216–25Road vs home26–1510th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesCapitals
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARWSH
Puck line42–4951–40
Last 105–55–5
Favorite39–4424–28
Underdog3–527–12
Overs–unders40–5146–45
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 7–5 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.