Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Hurricanes- Sean WalkerGoals1
- Sean WalkerAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:39Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (1), Jordan Martinook (4)2–5
- P316:45Sean Walker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (4)2–4
- P312:14Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Jakob Chychrun (2)2–3
- P38:24Taylor Hall Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (3), Sean Walker (1)1–3
- P35:18Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (2), Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)1–2
- P21:05Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Batted, assists: Sebastian Aho (7), Dmitry Orlov (4)0–2
- P110:24Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Eric Robinson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:24Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3), Eric Robinson (2)WSH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 67% → 80% +13CAR 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P21:05Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Batted, assists: Sebastian Aho (7), Dmitry Orlov (4)WSH 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 80% → 90% +10CAR 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P35:18Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (2), Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)WSH 1 – 2 CAR · WSH 4% → 17% +12WSH 4% → 17%+12 pts
- P38:24Taylor Hall Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (3), Sean Walker (1)WSH 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 85% → 97% +12CAR 85% → 97%+12 pts
- P312:14Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Jakob Chychrun (2)WSH 2 – 3 CAR · WSH 1% → 12% +10WSH 1% → 12%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 68%
- ML WSH +200 / CAR -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.3%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -214
- WSH +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +5 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +51 Elo | CAR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3225–16 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 51–39 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 38–44 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 45–45 | 39–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–6 CAR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- May 10WSH 0 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 8CAR 1 @ WSH 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 58%Miss
- May 6CAR 2 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Hit
- Apr 10CAR 4 @ WSH 5Picked CAR 59%Miss
- Apr 2WSH 1 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 66%Hit
- Dec 20CAR 1 @ WSH 3Picked CAR 59%Miss
- Nov 3WSH 2 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 70%Hit
- Apr 5WSH 2 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 57%Hit