Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Tomas NosekAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Jackson BlakePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:19Jackson Blake Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (5)5–2
- P314:55Eetu Luostarinen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (3), Gustav Forsling (3)5–1
- P36:08Sam Bennett Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (6), Carter Verhaeghe (5)4–1
- P23:33A.J. Greer Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (1), Tomas Nosek (2)3–1
- P119:44Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Seth Jarvis (7), Andrei Svechnikov (2)2–1
- P112:29Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5)2–0
- P18:30Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (8), Matthew Tkachuk (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (8), Matthew Tkachuk (7)FLA 1 – 0 CAR · FLA 45% → 61% +16FLA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P112:29Aaron Ekblad Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5)FLA 2 – 0 CAR · FLA 62% → 76% +14FLA 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P119:44Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Seth Jarvis (7), Andrei Svechnikov (2)FLA 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 22% → 37% +15CAR 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P23:33A.J. Greer Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (1), Tomas Nosek (2)FLA 3 – 1 CAR · FLA 64% → 80% +16FLA 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P36:08Sam Bennett Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (6), Carter Verhaeghe (5)FLA 4 – 1 CAR · FLA 93% → 99% +6FLA 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 55%
- ML FLA +115 / CAR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 54.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -124
- FLA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +29 Elo | CAR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–50 | 43–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–46 | 40–44 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 46–48 | 40–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–3 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.