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Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast

FinalFLA wins series 4-1

Away

Panthers

47-31-4

5–3

at

Home

Hurricanes

47-30-5

FLA 53%CAR 47%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.

CAR favored FLA favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3CAR50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P319:06Sam Bennett Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (11), Sam Reinhart (9)5–3
  • P312:21Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (10), Sam Reinhart (8)4–3
  • P38:30Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (6)3–3
  • P211:59Anton Lundell Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (10)3–2
  • P27:53Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (6), Matthew Tkachuk (11)2–2
  • P27:23Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (8), Seth Jones (4)1–2
  • P118:54Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (10)0–2
  • P14:39Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P27:23Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (8), Seth Jones (4)FLA 1 – 2 CAR · FLA 18% → 33% +16
  2. P27:53Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (6), Matthew Tkachuk (11)FLA 2 – 2 CAR · FLA 33% → 52% +19
  3. P211:59Anton Lundell Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (10)FLA 3 – 2 CAR · FLA 52% → 72% +20
  4. P38:30Seth Jarvis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (6)FLA 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 19% → 49% +29
  5. P312:21Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (10), Sam Reinhart (8)FLA 4 – 3 CAR · FLA 51% → 85% +34

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 53%

Toss-upHit
FLA 53%CAR 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
FLA 53%
ML FLA -125 / CAR +105
Pre-line forecast
FLA 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 49%
Ratings vs. market
−4.5 pts
FLA: Elo 48.7%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
FLA -114
CAR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.8 – 2.7 CAR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLACARWhy
Team rating15751552Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+6+3FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +9 EloCAR 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 52.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 52.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatCAR
14th of 323.1Goals scored3.210th of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed2.810th of 32
10th of 32+0.4Margin+0.49th of 32
2nd of 3254.6%Shot share56.0%1st of 32
10th of 3290.5%Save percentage89.3%26th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 103–725th of 32
14th of 3219–21Road vs home31–101st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersHurricanes
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLACAR
Puck line47–5144–52
Last 106–44–6
Favorite33–4740–46
Underdog14–44–6
Overs–unders48–5042–54
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 6–4 CAR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.