Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals3
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:34Boone Jenner Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (1)7–4
- P315:49Kirill Kaprizov Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (2), Zeev Buium (1)6–4
- P310:47Adam Fantilli Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Boone Jenner (2)6–3
- P39:54Zeev Buium Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (2), Matt Boldy (4)5–3
- P33:01Kirill Marchenko Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (2), Boone Jenner (1)5–2
- P31:11Zach Werenski Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Cole Sillinger (1)4–2
- P218:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Zach Werenski (1)3–2
- P28:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (3), Vladimir Tarasenko (1)2–2
- P26:18Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (1), Kirill Kaprizov (4)2–1
- P20:07Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (1), Ivan Provorov (1)2–0
- P12:29Miles Wood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:07Kirill Marchenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (1), Ivan Provorov (1)CBJ 2 – 0 MIN · CBJ 60% → 76% +16CBJ 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P26:18Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (1), Kirill Kaprizov (4)CBJ 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 21% → 37% +16MIN 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P28:24Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (3), Vladimir Tarasenko (1)CBJ 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 37% → 56% +20MIN 37% → 56%+20 pts
- P218:48Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (2), Zach Werenski (1)CBJ 3 – 2 MIN · CBJ 45% → 68% +24CBJ 45% → 68%+24 pts
- P31:11Zach Werenski Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Cole Sillinger (1)CBJ 4 – 2 MIN · CBJ 70% → 88% +18CBJ 70% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML CBJ +135 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- CBJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +60 Elo | MIN 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.2%27th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–27 | Road vs home | 22–1918th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 150415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CBJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–33 | 45–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.