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Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast

FinalVGK wins series 4-2

Away

Golden Knights

50-22-10

3–2

at

Home

Wild

45-30-7

VGK 60%MIN 40%

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Grand Casino Arena · ESPN, Scripps Sports, FanDuel SN North

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored VGK favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3MIN50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P316:33Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Jake Middleton (2)3–2
  • P316:02Mark Stone Goal (2) Batted, assists: Brayden McNabb (3), Shea Theodore (2)3–1
  • P216:12Jack Eichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Brayden McNabb (2)2–1
  • P119:56Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (1)1–1
  • P13:30Shea Theodore Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (1), Jack Eichel (4)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:30Shea Theodore Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (1), Jack Eichel (4)VGK 1 – 0 MIN · VGK 60% → 73% +14
  2. P119:56Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (1)VGK 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 26% → 42% +16
  3. P216:12Jack Eichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Brayden McNabb (2)VGK 2 – 1 MIN · VGK 56% → 77% +21
  4. P316:02Mark Stone Goal (2) Batted, assists: Brayden McNabb (3), Shea Theodore (2)VGK 3 – 1 MIN · VGK 93% → >99% +7
  5. P316:33Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Jake Middleton (2)VGK 3 – 2 MIN · MIN <1% → 6% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 60%

LeanHit
VGK 60%MIN 40%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
VGK 60%
ML VGK -165 / MIN +140
Pre-line forecast
VGK 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 53%
Ratings vs. market
−6.9 pts
VGK: Elo 53.0%, market 59.9%
Fair odds
VGK -149
MIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKMINWhy
Team rating15501498Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+6+1VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +21 EloVGK 53.0%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 58.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 57.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 59.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatMIN
6th of 323.4Goals scored2.825th of 32
3rd of 322.7Goals allowed2.916th of 32
4th of 32+0.7Margin−0.118th of 32
4th of 3253.7%Shot share48.2%27th of 32
12th of 3290.3%Save percentage90.8%6th of 32
9th of 326–4Last 105–514th of 32
9th of 3221–20Road vs home22–1918th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsWild
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKMIN
Puck line48–3944–43
Last 105–55–5
Favorite35–3717–25
Underdog13–227–18
Overs–unders41–4641–46
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 8–3 MIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.