Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Wild- Marco RossiGoals1
- Yakov TreninAssists1
- Jared SpurgeonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT17:26Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (2), Reilly Smith (1)4–3
- P310:57Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)3–3
- P310:03Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Mark Stone (1), Brayden McNabb (1)3–2
- P34:50Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Pavel Dorofeyev (1)2–2
- P21:24Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Mats Zuccarello (1)1–2
- P110:43Marco Rossi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (2), Yakov Trenin (2)1–1
- P16:47Shea Theodore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (1), Jack Eichel (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:24Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Mats Zuccarello (1)VGK 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 43% → 61% +18MIN 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P34:50Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Pavel Dorofeyev (1)VGK 2 – 2 MIN · VGK 27% → 55% +28VGK 27% → 55%+28 pts
- P310:03Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Mark Stone (1), Brayden McNabb (1)VGK 3 – 2 MIN · VGK 54% → 84% +30VGK 54% → 84%+30 pts
- P310:57Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)VGK 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 15% → 46% +31MIN 15% → 46%+31 pts
- OT17:26Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (2), Reilly Smith (1)VGK 4 – 3 MIN · VGK 53% → 100% +47VGK 53% → 100%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML VGK -160 / MIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +12 Elo | VGK 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 48.2%27th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 22–1918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–37 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–35 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–45 | 40–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–3 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Apr 24VGK 2 @ MIN 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Miss
- Apr 22MIN 5 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 68%Miss
- Apr 20MIN 2 @ VGK 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 69%Hit
- Mar 25VGK 5 @ MIN 1Picked VGK 67%Hit
- Jan 12MIN 1 @ VGK 4Picked VGK 64%Hit
- Dec 15VGK 3 @ MIN 2Picked VGK 52%Hit
- Apr 12MIN 2 @ VGK 7Picked VGK 56%Hit
- Mar 30VGK 2 @ MIN 1Picked MIN 55%Miss