Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Ben HuttonAssists2
- Victor OlofssonPoints2
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Nils HoglanderAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28Cole Schwindt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (50)4–1
- P310:45Jack Eichel Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Ben Hutton (2), Brett Howden (17)3–1
- P37:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (14), Ben Hutton (1)2–1
- P218:33Victor Olofsson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (20), Shea Theodore (49)1–1
- P18:23Pius Suter Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (31), Nils Hoglander (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:23Pius Suter Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Conor Garland (31), Nils Hoglander (17)VGK 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 52% → 67% +15VAN 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P218:33Victor Olofsson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (20), Shea Theodore (49)VGK 1 – 1 VAN · VGK 26% → 49% +23VGK 26% → 49%+23 pts
- P37:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (14), Ben Hutton (1)VGK 2 – 1 VAN · VGK 49% → 79% +30VGK 49% → 79%+30 pts
- P310:45Jack Eichel Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Ben Hutton (2), Brett Howden (17)VGK 3 – 1 VAN · VGK 82% → 97% +15VGK 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P318:28Cole Schwindt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (50)VGK 4 – 1 VAN · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 52%
- ML VGK +100 / VAN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 55.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -109
- VGK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.7 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −29 | −5 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.73 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +40 Elo | VAN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220–20 | Road vs home | 17–2330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–35 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–44 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–2 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.