San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Luca CagnoniAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:42Jake DeBrusk Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (25), Quinn Hughes (60)1–2
- P39:03Linus Karlsson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Teddy Blueger (18), Drew O'Connor (15)1–1
- P24:20Macklin Celebrini Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (24), Luca Cagnoni (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:20Macklin Celebrini Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (24), Luca Cagnoni (2)SJ 1 – 0 VAN · SJ 31% → 49% +18SJ 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P39:03Linus Karlsson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Teddy Blueger (18), Drew O'Connor (15)SJ 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 28% → 61% +33VAN 28% → 61%+33 pts
- OT4:42Jake DeBrusk Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (25), Quinn Hughes (60)SJ 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 52% → >99% +48VAN 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 74%
- ML SJ +270 / VAN -340
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 76.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -286
- SJ +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1357 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +209 Elo | VAN 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 76.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 76.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.1% | Shot share | 48.7%25th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 328–32 | Road vs home | 16–2330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–32 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 47–32 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 39–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–6 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.