Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints2
Avalanche- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:02Nils Hoglander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (30), Filip Hronek (28)4–1
- P36:14Dakota Joshua Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (4), Marcus Pettersson (25)3–1
- P216:36Devon Toews Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (15), Cale Makar (62)2–1
- P27:51Kiefer Sherwood Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (7), Derek Forbort (9)2–0
- P24:50Jake DeBrusk Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:50Jake DeBrusk Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (21)VAN 1 – 0 COL · VAN 38% → 57% +19VAN 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P27:51Kiefer Sherwood Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (7), Derek Forbort (9)VAN 2 – 0 COL · VAN 58% → 76% +18VAN 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P216:36Devon Toews Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (15), Cale Makar (62)VAN 2 – 1 COL · COL 18% → 37% +19COL 18% → 37%+19 pts
- P36:14Dakota Joshua Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (4), Marcus Pettersson (25)VAN 3 – 1 COL · VAN 72% → 91% +19VAN 72% → 91%+19 pts
- P318:02Nils Hoglander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (30), Filip Hronek (28)VAN 4 – 1 COL · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML VAN +180 / COL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 66.2%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -191
- VAN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.3 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +117 Elo | COL 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 69.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3220–20 | Road vs home | 26–148th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–41 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.