Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists1
- Brayden McNabbPoints1
Avalanche- Jimmy VeseyGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Charlie Coyle Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P217:08Jimmy Vesey Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (14), Miles Wood (4)2–2
- P29:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (84), Charlie Coyle (13)2–1
- P20:40Brayden McNabb Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P111:10William Karlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (24)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:10William Karlsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (24)VGK 1 – 0 COL · VGK 42% → 58% +16VGK 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P20:40Brayden McNabb Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 2 – 0 COL · VGK 61% → 76% +16VGK 61% → 76%+16 pts
- P29:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (84), Charlie Coyle (13)VGK 2 – 1 COL · COL 19% → 36% +17COL 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P217:08Jimmy Vesey Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (14), Miles Wood (4)VGK 2 – 2 COL · COL 33% → 55% +23COL 33% → 55%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML VGK +135 / COL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- COL: Elo 62.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- VGK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.5 – 3.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −32 | +5 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.80 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +89 Elo | COL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–18 | Road vs home | 25–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–34 | 34–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–32 | 27–38 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.