Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Sharks- Will SmithGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Will SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:01Will Smith Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (9), Macklin Celebrini (36)3–2
- P315:30Matt Coronato Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P311:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Frost (21), MacKenzie Weegar (37)2–1
- P38:12Adam Klapka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (30), Kevin Bahl (16)1–1
- P119:35Will Smith Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (12), Macklin Celebrini (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:35Will Smith Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (12), Macklin Celebrini (35)CGY 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 36% → 53% +17SJ 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P38:12Adam Klapka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (30), Kevin Bahl (16)CGY 1 – 1 SJ · CGY 27% → 58% +31CGY 27% → 58%+31 pts
- P311:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Frost (21), MacKenzie Weegar (37)CGY 2 – 1 SJ · CGY 57% → 87% +30CGY 57% → 87%+30 pts
- P315:30Matt Coronato Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 1 SJ · CGY 93% → >99% +7CGY 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P318:01Will Smith Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (9), Macklin Celebrini (36)CGY 3 – 2 SJ · SJ <1% → 2% +2SJ <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 67%
- ML CGY -230 / SJ +195
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- CGY: Elo 61.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -206
- SJ +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.3 – 2.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Georgi Romanov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +84 Elo | CGY 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.1%31st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 19th of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 12–2732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–37 | 45–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders | 30–46 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–1 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.