San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:16Yegor Sharangovich Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (20)2–5
- P310:55Matt Coronato Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (16), Blake Coleman (23)2–4
- P31:30Yegor Sharangovich Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (23), Brayden Pachal (7)2–3
- P24:20Jan Rutta Goal (3) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (41), Tyler Toffoli (23)2–2
- P114:15Adam Klapka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (31), Jonathan Huberdeau (33)1–2
- P19:24MacKenzie Weegar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (3), Jonathan Huberdeau (32)1–1
- P13:09Tyler Toffoli Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Carlsson (3), Noah Gregor (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:09Tyler Toffoli Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Carlsson (3), Noah Gregor (3)SJ 1 – 0 CGY · SJ 26% → 39% +13SJ 26% → 39%+13 pts
- P19:24MacKenzie Weegar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (3), Jonathan Huberdeau (32)SJ 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 59% → 73% +14CGY 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P114:15Adam Klapka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (31), Jonathan Huberdeau (33)SJ 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 72% → 84% +12CGY 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P24:20Jan Rutta Goal (3) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (41), Tyler Toffoli (23)SJ 2 – 2 CGY · SJ 16% → 30% +14SJ 16% → 30%+14 pts
- P31:30Yegor Sharangovich Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (23), Brayden Pachal (7)SJ 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 64% → 85% +20CGY 64% → 85%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 75%
- ML SJ +280 / CGY -360
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CGY: Elo 71.4%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- CGY -297
- SJ +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.0 – 3.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | SJ: Georgi Romanov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +159 Elo | CGY 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 71.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.915th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.0% | Shot share | 50.6%11th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–31 | Road vs home | 21–1817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–31 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 47–31 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41 | 32–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–5 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.