Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Yakov TreninGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Gustav NyquistPoints1
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:30Gustav Nyquist Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (19)2–4
- P315:39Yakov Trenin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P37:20Ryan Lomberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P27:23Nazem Kadri Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (22), Matt Coronato (20)0–3
- P25:31Yegor Sharangovich Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Martin Pospisil (21)0–2
- P116:25Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:25Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (22)MIN 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 47% → 64% +17CGY 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P25:31Yegor Sharangovich Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Martin Pospisil (21)MIN 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 66% → 82% +15CGY 66% → 82%+15 pts
- P27:23Nazem Kadri Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (22), Matt Coronato (20)MIN 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 82% → 92% +10CGY 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P37:20Ryan Lomberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 0 – 4 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +1CGY >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P315:39Yakov Trenin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 4 CGY · MIN <1% → <1% +0MIN <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / CGY +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +15 Elo | CGY 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–17 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–39 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 31–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.