Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Joel HanleyAssists2
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Olen ZellwegerAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (23)3–4
- P316:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (22), Alex Killorn (16)3–3
- P316:03Frank Vatrano Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (13), Ryan Strome (31)3–2
- P315:18Matt Coronato Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (15), Blake Coleman (21)3–1
- P313:44Yegor Sharangovich Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (14), Joel Hanley (7)2–1
- P311:49Trevor Zegras Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (4)1–1
- P214:18Mikael Backlund Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (38), Joel Hanley (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:18Mikael Backlund Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (38), Joel Hanley (6)CGY 1 – 0 ANA · CGY 56% → 76% +20CGY 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P311:49Trevor Zegras Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (4)CGY 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 14% → 47% +33ANA 14% → 47%+33 pts
- P313:44Yegor Sharangovich Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (14), Joel Hanley (7)CGY 2 – 1 ANA · CGY 53% → 89% +36CGY 53% → 89%+36 pts
- P316:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (22), Alex Killorn (16)CGY 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 7% → 48% +41ANA 7% → 48%+41 pts
- OT1:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (23)CGY 3 – 4 ANA · ANA 48% → 92% +44ANA 48% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 59%
- ML CGY -155 / ANA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CGY: Elo 52.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CGY -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −14 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +14 Elo | CGY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 17th of 3217–22 | Road vs home | 20–1920th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–38 | 52–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 48–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–47 | 31–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–1 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.