Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Adam HenriqueGoals1
- Adam HenriqueAssists1
- Adam HenriquePoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Drew HellesonAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:29Jeff Skinner Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (50), Adam Henrique (12)2–3
- P35:33Mason McTavish Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (19)1–3
- P27:10Cutter Gauthier Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Drew Helleson (9), Isac Lundestrom (11)1–2
- P22:20Cutter Gauthier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (21)1–1
- P117:51Adam Henrique Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (33), Corey Perry (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:51Adam Henrique Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (33), Corey Perry (10)EDM 1 – 0 ANA · EDM 55% → 71% +16EDM 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P22:20Cutter Gauthier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (21)EDM 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 28% → 45% +17ANA 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P27:10Cutter Gauthier Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Drew Helleson (9), Isac Lundestrom (11)EDM 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 45% → 65% +19ANA 45% → 65%+19 pts
- P35:33Mason McTavish Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (19)EDM 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 75% → 92% +17ANA 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P316:29Jeff Skinner Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (50), Adam Henrique (12)EDM 2 – 3 ANA · EDM <1% → 7% +7EDM <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 56%
- ML EDM -140 / ANA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 59.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- ANA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | EDM: Olivier Rodrigue (no track record yet) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +66 Elo | EDM 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 46.7%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 7th of 3221–17 | Road vs home | 19–1921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–49 | 51–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–46 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 47–22 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 31–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–2 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.