San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals3
- Will SmithAssists3
- Macklin CelebriniPoints5
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (33), Jared Spurgeon (25)7–8
- P319:08Will Smith Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (11), Macklin Celebrini (38)7–7
- P310:02Macklin Celebrini Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (27), Jack Thompson (6)6–7
- P34:44Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (37), Henry Thrun (10)5–7
- P32:06Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (45), Marcus Foligno (15)4–7
- P31:02Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (30), Mats Zuccarello (32)4–6
- P219:48Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (11) Poke, assists: Marco Rossi (36), Matt Boldy (44)4–5
- P217:02Kirill Kaprizov Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (31), Marco Rossi (35)4–4
- P212:28Macklin Celebrini Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (26), Timothy Liljegren (10)4–3
- P28:35Carl Grundstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Lund (1)3–3
- P27:47Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (14), Matt Boldy (43)2–3
- P27:29Macklin Celebrini Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (5), Will Smith (25)2–2
- P118:48Brock Faber Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (42)1–2
- P114:16Marcus Johansson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (18), Gustav Nyquist (17)1–1
- P112:11Tyler Toffoli Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (39), Alexander Wennberg (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:28Macklin Celebrini Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (26), Timothy Liljegren (10)SJ 4 – 3 MIN · SJ 33% → 54% +21SJ 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P217:02Kirill Kaprizov Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (31), Marco Rossi (35)SJ 4 – 4 MIN · MIN 42% → 66% +23MIN 42% → 66%+23 pts
- P219:48Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (11) Poke, assists: Marco Rossi (36), Matt Boldy (44)SJ 4 – 5 MIN · MIN 65% → 84% +20MIN 65% → 84%+20 pts
- P319:08Will Smith Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (11), Macklin Celebrini (38)SJ 7 – 7 MIN · SJ <1% → 47% +47SJ <1% → 47%+47 pts
- OT1:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (33), Jared Spurgeon (25)SJ 7 – 8 MIN · MIN 57% → 94% +38MIN 57% → 94%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 74%
- ML SJ +270 / MIN -340
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -286
- SJ +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.0 – 3.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −16 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +153 Elo | MIN 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.2% | Shot share | 47.8%28th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–29 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–31 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 45–31 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–40 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–5 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.