San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Henry ThrunGoals1
- Nikolai KovalenkoAssists1
- Henry ThrunPoints1
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Adam HenriqueAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:34Connor Brown Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (28), Connor McDavid (71)2–4
- P37:32Corey Perry Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (70), Adam Henrique (14)2–3
- P25:44Henry Thrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (40)2–2
- P117:13Will Smith Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (13)1–2
- P115:41Ty Emberson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (69), Evan Bouchard (52)0–2
- P16:47Evan Bouchard Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (68), Adam Henrique (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:47Evan Bouchard Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (68), Adam Henrique (13)SJ 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 75% → 86% +11EDM 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P115:41Ty Emberson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (69), Evan Bouchard (52)SJ 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 85% → 93% +8EDM 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P117:13Will Smith Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (13)SJ 1 – 2 EDM · SJ 7% → 15% +8SJ 7% → 15%+8 pts
- P25:44Henry Thrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (40)SJ 2 – 2 EDM · SJ 15% → 30% +14SJ 15% → 30%+14 pts
- P37:32Corey Perry Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (70), Adam Henrique (14)SJ 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 63% → 87% +24EDM 63% → 87%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 76%
- ML SJ +300 / EDM -400
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 78.6%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -320
- SJ +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 4.1 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1361 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | SJ: Georgi Romanov: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +226 Elo | EDM 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 77.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.1% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–30 | Road vs home | 24–1512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–31 | 27–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 18–48 |
| Underdog | 46–31 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.