St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Oilers- Connor BrownGoals2
- Darnell NurseAssists2
- Connor BrownPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:39Connor Brown Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (67), Evan Bouchard (51)3–4
- P35:25Pavel Buchnevich Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (33), Robert Thomas (57)3–3
- P31:41Viktor Arvidsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (17), Darnell Nurse (27)2–3
- P30:14Jordan Kyrou Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (35), Robert Thomas (56)2–2
- P212:39Vasily Podkolzin Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (26), Connor McDavid (66)1–2
- P21:30Connor Brown Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (65)1–1
- P18:44Ryan Suter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (34), Tyler Tucker (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:39Vasily Podkolzin Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (26), Connor McDavid (66)STL 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 52% → 72% +20EDM 52% → 72%+20 pts
- P30:14Jordan Kyrou Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (35), Robert Thomas (56)STL 2 – 2 EDM · STL 25% → 48% +23STL 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P31:41Viktor Arvidsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (17), Darnell Nurse (27)STL 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 52% → 76% +24EDM 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P35:25Pavel Buchnevich Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (33), Robert Thomas (57)STL 3 – 3 EDM · STL 22% → 48% +27STL 22% → 48%+27 pts
- P319:39Connor Brown Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (67), Evan Bouchard (51)STL 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 50% → >99% +50EDM 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 53%
- ML STL +105 / EDM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +49 Elo | EDM 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 23–1512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–34 | 27–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 18–47 |
| Underdog | 34–18 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–3 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.