Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints1
Canucks- Marcus PetterssonGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Marcus PetterssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Mats Zuccarello Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (31), Brock Faber (19)3–2
- P313:14Marcus Foligno Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (15), Justin Brazeau (11)2–2
- P30:22Brock Faber Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P213:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Nils Hoglander (16), Quinn Hughes (59)0–2
- P13:11Marcus Pettersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (3), Teddy Blueger (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Marcus Pettersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (3), Teddy Blueger (17)MIN 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 47% → 62% +15VAN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P213:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Nils Hoglander (16), Quinn Hughes (59)MIN 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 69% → 85% +16VAN 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P30:22Brock Faber Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 2 VAN · MIN 11% → 28% +17MIN 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P313:14Marcus Foligno Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (15), Justin Brazeau (11)MIN 2 – 2 VAN · MIN 14% → 51% +37MIN 14% → 51%+37 pts
- OT2:47Mats Zuccarello Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (31), Brock Faber (19)MIN 3 – 2 VAN · MIN 51% → 97% +47MIN 51% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / VAN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 40.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- VAN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +70 Elo | VAN 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 16–2230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–40 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.