Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Marc Del GaizoGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Golden Knights- Nicolas RoyGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists2
- Nicolas RoyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Ivan Barbashev Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (16), Brett Howden (16)3–5
- P318:05Noah Hanifin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (9), Reilly Smith (27)3–4
- P34:58Marc Del Gaizo Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Andreas Englund (2), Luke Evangelista (21)3–3
- P31:02Jonathan Marchessault Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (10), Justin Barron (6)2–3
- P211:09Alexander Holtz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (19), Reilly Smith (26)1–3
- P25:36Nicolas Roy Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (17), Shea Theodore (48)1–2
- P24:02Brett Howden Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (15), Tanner Pearson (15)1–1
- P18:11Jordan Oesterle Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (20), Michael Bunting (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:11Jordan Oesterle Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (20), Michael Bunting (19)NSH 1 – 0 VGK · NSH 31% → 46% +15NSH 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P24:02Brett Howden Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (15), Tanner Pearson (15)NSH 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 48% → 66% +18VGK 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P25:36Nicolas Roy Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (17), Shea Theodore (48)NSH 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 66% → 81% +16VGK 66% → 81%+16 pts
- P34:58Marc Del Gaizo Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Andreas Englund (2), Luke Evangelista (21)NSH 3 – 3 VGK · NSH 16% → 39% +23NSH 16% → 39%+23 pts
- P318:05Noah Hanifin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (9), Reilly Smith (27)NSH 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 54% → 98% +45VGK 54% → 98%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 70%
- ML NSH +225 / VGK -275
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 69.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -238
- NSH +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +11 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +146 Elo | VGK 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 73.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3210–30 | Road vs home | 28–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–47 | 44–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–30 | 33–33 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–48 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.