Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:21Jared McCann Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (15), Adam Larsson (21)1–2
- P27:56William Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (25), Brayden McNabb (14)0–2
- P16:58Ivan Barbashev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:58Ivan Barbashev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 70% → 82% +12VGK 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P27:56William Karlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (25), Brayden McNabb (14)SEA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 82% → 92% +10VGK 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P217:21Jared McCann Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (15), Adam Larsson (21)SEA 1 – 2 VGK · SEA 6% → 18% +11SEA 6% → 18%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 71%
- ML SEA +230 / VGK -280
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.8%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -243
- SEA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +11 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +121 Elo | VGK 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 71.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 27–126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–38 | 44–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 33–32 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 39–40 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.