Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Brandon SaadAssists2
- Brandon SaadPoints3
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P311:12Brandon Saad Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none4–4
- P311:01Adam Klapka Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (8), Nazem Kadri (32)3–4
- P31:04Mikael Backlund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (24), Kevin Bahl (17)3–3
- P30:32Nazem Kadri Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (34), Matt Coronato (22)3–2
- P119:36Tomas Hertl Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (17), Nicolas Hague (7)3–1
- P114:52Nicolas Roy Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (28), Keegan Kolesar (18)2–1
- P110:11Morgan Frost Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (39), Matt Coronato (21)1–1
- P15:25Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (29), Brandon Saad (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:52Nicolas Roy Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (28), Keegan Kolesar (18)VGK 2 – 1 CGY · VGK 48% → 65% +16VGK 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P30:32Nazem Kadri Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (34), Matt Coronato (22)VGK 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 11% → 27% +17CGY 11% → 27%+17 pts
- P31:04Mikael Backlund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (24), Kevin Bahl (17)VGK 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 27% → 51% +24CGY 27% → 51%+24 pts
- P311:01Adam Klapka Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (8), Nazem Kadri (32)VGK 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 51% → 83% +32CGY 51% → 83%+32 pts
- P311:12Brandon Saad Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneVGK 4 – 4 CGY · VGK 17% → 49% +33VGK 17% → 49%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 52%
- ML VGK +100 / CGY -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CGY: Elo 45.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -109
- VGK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +4 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +30 Elo | VGK 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.730th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 50.6%11th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 22–1816th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–35 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44 | 33–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–3 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.