Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals2
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Brett HowdenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:59Brett Howden Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P311:46Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2)2–3
- P32:28Brett Howden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Noah Hanifin (1)1–3
- P213:33Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1), Tomas Hertl (1)1–2
- P117:42Matt Boldy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Ryan Hartman (1)1–1
- P115:22Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (1), Brandon Saad (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:22Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (1), Brandon Saad (1)MIN 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 67% → 81% +14VGK 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P117:42Matt Boldy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Ryan Hartman (1)MIN 1 – 1 VGK · MIN 19% → 33% +14MIN 19% → 33%+14 pts
- P213:33Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1), Tomas Hertl (1)MIN 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 63% → 81% +18VGK 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P32:28Brett Howden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Noah Hanifin (1)MIN 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 83% → 95% +12VGK 83% → 95%+12 pts
- P311:46Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2)MIN 2 – 3 VGK · MIN 2% → 12% +10MIN 2% → 12%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 69%
- ML MIN +215 / VGK -260
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 64.9%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- VGK -228
- MIN +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +13 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +106 Elo | VGK 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 29–124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–42 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 34–33 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–5 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.