Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:42Matt Boldy Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (23), Jonas Brodin (16)2–3
- P319:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (46), Mats Zuccarello (35)2–2
- P38:45Sam Colangelo Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (30), Trevor Zegras (20)2–1
- P113:48Alex Killorn Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Cutter Gauthier (24), Leo Carlsson (25)1–1
- P19:47Marcus Johansson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (34), Jake Middleton (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:47Marcus Johansson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (34), Jake Middleton (13)ANA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 68% → 81% +13MIN 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P113:48Alex Killorn Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Cutter Gauthier (24), Leo Carlsson (25)ANA 1 – 1 MIN · ANA 19% → 33% +13ANA 19% → 33%+13 pts
- P38:45Sam Colangelo Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (30), Trevor Zegras (20)ANA 2 – 1 MIN · ANA 41% → 73% +32ANA 41% → 73%+32 pts
- P319:38Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (46), Mats Zuccarello (35)ANA 2 – 2 MIN · MIN <1% → 52% +52MIN <1% → 52%+52 pts
- OT4:42Matt Boldy Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (23), Jonas Brodin (16)ANA 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 51% → >99% +49MIN 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 69%
- ML ANA +215 / MIN -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -228
- ANA +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.2 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +90 Elo | MIN 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–25 | Road vs home | 21–1919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–27 | 40–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 49–24 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–47 | 37–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.