Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Cutter GauthierPoints1
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals2
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists3
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:47Jordan Spence Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (33), Trevor Moore (20)1–6
- P31:08Kevin Fiala Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (23), Adrian Kempe (34)1–5
- P216:34Alex Laferriere Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Mikey Anderson (16), Quinton Byfield (29)1–4
- P25:30Kevin Fiala Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (33), Anze Kopitar (44)1–3
- P22:17Anze Kopitar Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (15), Andrei Kuzmenko (22)1–2
- P21:46Cutter Gauthier Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (24), Alex Killorn (17)1–1
- P11:24Quinton Byfield Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (21), Adrian Kempe (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:24Quinton Byfield Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (21), Adrian Kempe (32)ANA 0 – 1 LA · LA 75% → 85% +10LA 75% → 85%+10 pts
- P21:46Cutter Gauthier Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (24), Alex Killorn (17)ANA 1 – 1 LA · ANA 16% → 30% +14ANA 16% → 30%+14 pts
- P22:17Anze Kopitar Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (15), Andrei Kuzmenko (22)ANA 1 – 2 LA · LA 70% → 84% +14LA 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P25:30Kevin Fiala Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (33), Anze Kopitar (44)ANA 1 – 3 LA · LA 84% → 93% +9LA 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P216:34Alex Laferriere Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Mikey Anderson (16), Quinton Byfield (29)ANA 1 – 4 LA · LA 94% → 99% +4LA 94% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- LA 75%
- ML ANA +280 / LA -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LA: Elo 72.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- LA -297
- ANA +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.0 – 3.5 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +164 Elo | LA 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 77.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–24 | Road vs home | 29–92nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–25 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 49–22 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–46 | 30–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–5 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.