Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints3
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Sam ColangeloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:12Erik Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (18)4–2
- P317:51Charlie Coyle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (3), Logan O'Connor (11)3–2
- P314:34Jack Drury Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (10), Charlie Coyle (17)2–2
- P310:05Wyatt Aamodt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (56), Jack Drury (10)1–2
- P27:35Sam Colangelo Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (18), Frank Vatrano (23)0–2
- P118:52Mason McTavish Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (2), Troy Terry (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:52Mason McTavish Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (2), Troy Terry (34)COL 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 48% → 65% +17ANA 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P27:35Sam Colangelo Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (18), Frank Vatrano (23)COL 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 68% → 83% +15ANA 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P310:05Wyatt Aamodt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (56), Jack Drury (10)COL 1 – 2 ANA · COL 4% → 19% +15COL 4% → 19%+15 pts
- P314:34Jack Drury Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (10), Charlie Coyle (17)COL 2 – 2 ANA · COL 12% → 51% +39COL 12% → 51%+39 pts
- P317:51Charlie Coyle Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (3), Logan O'Connor (11)COL 3 – 2 ANA · COL 50% → 97% +47COL 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML COL -120 / ANA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- COL: Elo 62.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- ANA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +88 Elo | COL 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 6th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–46 | 53–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 49–23 |
| Overs–unders | 40–41 | 33–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–1 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.