Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals2
- Quinton ByfieldAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:20Brock Nelson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–5
- P312:11Kevin Fiala Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (23)3–5
- P39:18Sam Malinski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (13)3–4
- P216:02Anze Kopitar Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (35), Mikey Anderson (17)2–4
- P210:57Alex Laferriere Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (27), Quinton Byfield (31)2–3
- P22:13Valeri Nichushkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (18), Samuel Girard (21)2–2
- P110:39Brock Nelson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (16), Martin Necas (55)1–2
- P17:14Kevin Fiala Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (25), Quinton Byfield (30)0–2
- P14:03Quinton Byfield Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (24), Alex Laferriere (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:03Quinton Byfield Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (24), Alex Laferriere (22)COL 0 – 1 LA · LA 62% → 75% +13LA 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P22:13Valeri Nichushkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (18), Samuel Girard (21)COL 2 – 2 LA · COL 24% → 40% +16COL 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P210:57Alex Laferriere Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (27), Quinton Byfield (31)COL 2 – 3 LA · LA 59% → 77% +18LA 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P216:02Anze Kopitar Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (35), Mikey Anderson (17)COL 2 – 4 LA · LA 78% → 91% +13LA 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P39:18Sam Malinski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (13)COL 3 – 4 LA · COL 3% → 16% +13COL 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML COL +155 / LA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- LA: Elo 53.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +25 Elo | LA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–17 | Road vs home | 30–92nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–46 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 22–28 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 31–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–1 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.