Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

Final/OTVGK leads series 3-2

Away

Wild

45-30-7

2–3

at

Home

Golden Knights

50-22-10

MIN 33%VGK 67%

You didn't pick this one.

T-Mobile Arena · ESPN, FanDuel SN North, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored MIN favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTVGK50%MIN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • OT4:05Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (1), Nicolas Hague (1)2–3
  • P33:31Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (3), Jake Middleton (1)2–2
  • P113:24Mark Stone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3)1–2
  • P18:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Joel Eriksson Ek (2)1–1
  • P18:25William Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:25William Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (2)MIN 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 66% → 79% +13
  2. P18:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (2), Joel Eriksson Ek (2)MIN 1 – 1 VGK · MIN 21% → 34% +13
  3. P113:24Mark Stone Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3)MIN 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 65% → 79% +14
  4. P33:31Matt Boldy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (3), Jake Middleton (1)MIN 2 – 2 VGK · MIN 18% → 41% +23
  5. OT4:05Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (1), Nicolas Hague (1)MIN 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 52% → >99% +48

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Golden Knights 67%

SolidHit
MIN 33%VGK 67%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
VGK 67%
ML MIN +195 / VGK -230
Pre-line forecast
VGK 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VGK 62%
Ratings vs. market
−5.0 pts
VGK: Elo 62.3%, market 67.3%
Fair odds
VGK -206
MIN +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 2.2 – 3.3 VGK
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINVGKWhy
Team rating15001548Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+6MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVGK +87 EloVGK 62.3%
Market-implied ratingsVGK 68.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVGK 67.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastVGK 67.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Minnesota Wild and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatVGK
25th of 322.8Goals scored3.46th of 32
16th of 322.9Goals allowed2.73rd of 32
18th of 32−0.1Margin+0.74th of 32
27th of 3248.2%Shot share53.7%4th of 32
6th of 3290.8%Save percentage90.3%12th of 32
14th of 325–5Last 106–49th of 32
4th of 3223–18Road vs home29–124th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WildGolden Knights
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINVGK
Puck line43–4348–38
Last 104–65–5
Favorite17–2535–36
Underdog26–1813–2
Overs–unders41–4541–45
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 3–7 VGK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.