Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists3
- Matt BoldyPoints3
BluesScoring summary
- P37:27Marco Rossi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (3), Matt Boldy (2)5–0
- P217:36Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1)4–0
- P212:27Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2), Matt Boldy (1)3–0
- P117:30Matt Boldy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Marco Rossi (1)2–0
- P115:54Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:54Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (1)MIN 1 – 0 STL · MIN 47% → 64% +17MIN 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P117:30Matt Boldy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (1), Marco Rossi (1)MIN 2 – 0 STL · MIN 64% → 79% +15MIN 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P212:27Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2), Matt Boldy (1)MIN 3 – 0 STL · MIN 85% → 94% +9MIN 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P217:36Ryan Hartman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (1)MIN 4 – 0 STL · MIN 96% → >99% +3MIN 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P37:27Marco Rossi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (3), Matt Boldy (2)MIN 5 – 0 STL · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML MIN +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- STL: Elo 59.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +65 Elo | STL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 16th of 321497 | Elo rating | 152711th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–43 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 45–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–4 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.