Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- David GustafssonGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists1
- Neal PionkPoints1
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals3
- Cam FowlerAssists4
- Cam FowlerPoints5
Scoring summary
- P316:17Colton Parayko Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (6), Robert Thomas (4)2–7
- P312:50Neal Pionk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (1), Mason Appleton (2)2–6
- P310:32Alexey Toropchenko Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake Neighbours (2), Radek Faksa (1)1–6
- P37:56Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (5)1–5
- P35:24Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (3)1–4
- P34:32David Gustafsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1), Morgan Barron (2)1–3
- P115:51Cam Fowler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Pavel Buchnevich (3)0–3
- P13:11Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Cam Fowler (4)0–2
- P10:48Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (1), Cam Fowler (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:48Pavel Buchnevich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (1), Cam Fowler (3)WPG 0 – 1 STL · STL 49% → 63% +14STL 49% → 63%+14 pts
- P13:11Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Cam Fowler (4)WPG 0 – 2 STL · STL 64% → 77% +13STL 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P115:51Cam Fowler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Pavel Buchnevich (3)WPG 0 – 3 STL · STL 80% → 89% +10STL 80% → 89%+10 pts
- P34:32David Gustafsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1), Morgan Barron (2)WPG 1 – 3 STL · WPG 2% → 8% +6WPG 2% → 8%+6 pts
- P35:24Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (3)WPG 1 – 4 STL · STL 93% → 99% +6STL 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 51%
- ML WPG -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +36 Elo | WPG 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3226–15 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–42 | 48–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 36–19 |
| Overs–unders | 36–48 | 40–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 8–1 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Apr 21STL 1 @ WPG 2PlayoffsPicked WPG 64%Hit
- Apr 19STL 3 @ WPG 5PlayoffsPicked WPG 64%Hit
- Apr 7STL 1 @ WPG 3Picked WPG 64%Hit
- Feb 22WPG 4 @ STL 3Picked WPG 52%Hit
- Dec 3STL 4 @ WPG 1Picked WPG 66%Miss
- Oct 22WPG 3 @ STL 2Picked WPG 56%Hit
- Feb 27STL 2 @ WPG 4Picked WPG 56%Hit
- Nov 7WPG 5 @ STL 2Picked STL 55%Miss