Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:11Mark Scheifele Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (48), Kyle Connor (56)1–2
- P35:45Troy Terry Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (24), Ian Moore (1)1–1
- P213:49Neal Pionk Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (32), Vladislav Namestnikov (27)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:49Neal Pionk Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (32), Vladislav Namestnikov (27)ANA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 67% → 84% +17WPG 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P35:45Troy Terry Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (24), Ian Moore (1)ANA 1 – 1 WPG · ANA 14% → 38% +23ANA 14% → 38%+23 pts
- OT1:11Mark Scheifele Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (48), Kyle Connor (56)ANA 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 56% → 95% +38WPG 56% → 95%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 74%
- ML ANA +270 / WPG -340
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 78.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -286
- ANA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +8 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +230 Elo | WPG 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 77.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 50.8%8th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–26 | Road vs home | 29–113rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 54–27 | 41–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 29–32 |
| Underdog | 50–24 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 33–48 | 35–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.