Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Corey PerryAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints2
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:40Viktor Arvidsson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (18), Connor McDavid (73)4–1
- P312:25Corey Perry Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (5)3–1
- P212:39Adam Henrique Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (11), Evan Bouchard (53)2–1
- P26:16Alex Iafallo Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (48), Colin Miller (11)1–1
- P20:59Connor Brown Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (72)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:59Connor Brown Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (72)EDM 1 – 0 WPG · EDM 49% → 67% +18EDM 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P26:16Alex Iafallo Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (48), Colin Miller (11)EDM 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 32% → 51% +19WPG 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P212:39Adam Henrique Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (11), Evan Bouchard (53)EDM 2 – 1 WPG · EDM 49% → 70% +21EDM 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P312:25Corey Perry Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (5)EDM 3 – 1 WPG · EDM 85% → 98% +13EDM 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P318:40Viktor Arvidsson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (18), Connor McDavid (73)EDM 4 – 1 WPG · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 51%
- ML EDM -105 / WPG -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -104
- EDM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −17 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +32 Elo | WPG 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.2% | Shot share | 51.1%8th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3221–18 | Road vs home | 29–103rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–52 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–49 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44 | 35–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.