Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:24Jordan Kyrou Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (14), Cam Fowler (31)1–6
- P36:59Jordan Kyrou Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (32), Oskar Sundqvist (14)1–5
- P25:40Clayton Keller Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (38), Nick Schmaltz (43)1–4
- P119:13Zack Bolduc Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (60), Cam Fowler (30)0–4
- P114:45Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Zack Bolduc (17), Pavel Buchnevich (37)0–3
- P111:17Pavel Buchnevich Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (24), Robert Thomas (59)0–2
- P18:08Brayden Schenn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (3), Pavel Buchnevich (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:08Brayden Schenn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (3), Pavel Buchnevich (36)UTAH 0 – 1 STL · STL 58% → 73% +14STL 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P111:17Pavel Buchnevich Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (24), Robert Thomas (59)UTAH 0 – 2 STL · STL 73% → 84% +12STL 73% → 84%+12 pts
- P114:45Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Zack Bolduc (17), Pavel Buchnevich (37)UTAH 0 – 3 STL · STL 85% → 93% +8STL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P119:13Zack Bolduc Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (60), Cam Fowler (30)UTAH 0 – 4 STL · STL 93% → 97% +4STL 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P25:40Clayton Keller Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (38), Nick Schmaltz (43)UTAH 1 – 4 STL · UTAH 2% → 5% +4UTAH 2% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML UTAH +135 / STL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- STL: Elo 62.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- UTAH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +90 Elo | STL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–20 | Road vs home | 23–1714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–42 | 46–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–43 | 38–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.