Utah Hockey Club at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals2
- Alexander KerfootAssists3
- Clayton KellerPoints4
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:35Kevin Stenlund Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Olli Määttä (16), Alexander Kerfoot (17)7–3
- P318:13Clayton Keller Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (33), Logan Cooley (40)6–3
- P312:05Clayton Keller Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (39), Michael Kesselring (22)5–3
- P214:20Michael Bunting Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (1), Justin Barron (7)4–3
- P211:01Luke Evangelista Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (30), Brady Skjei (23)4–2
- P24:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (26), Clayton Keller (60)4–1
- P23:03Logan Cooley Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (59)3–1
- P118:21Nick Bjugstad Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (16), Kevin Stenlund (14)2–1
- P112:30Michael Kesselring Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (16), Alexander Kerfoot (15)1–1
- P16:10Ryan O'Reilly Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:10Ryan O'Reilly Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (43)UTAH 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 42% → 57% +15NSH 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P112:30Michael Kesselring Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (16), Alexander Kerfoot (15)UTAH 1 – 1 NSH · UTAH 41% → 57% +16UTAH 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P118:21Nick Bjugstad Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (16), Kevin Stenlund (14)UTAH 2 – 1 NSH · UTAH 57% → 73% +16UTAH 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P23:03Logan Cooley Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (59)UTAH 3 – 1 NSH · UTAH 74% → 86% +13UTAH 74% → 86%+13 pts
- P214:20Michael Bunting Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Wood (1), Justin Barron (7)UTAH 4 – 3 NSH · NSH 11% → 24% +14NSH 11% → 24%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 58%
- ML UTAH -155 / NSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- UTAH: Elo 51.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -140
- NSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.5 – 3.0 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | UTAH: Matt Villalta (no track record yet) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +7 Elo | UTAH 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 50.7%10th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 13th of 3219–20 | Road vs home | 19–2024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–42 | 32–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 24–16 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 32–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.