St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nick LeddyGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Nick LeddyPoints2
Kraken- Michael EyssimontGoals1
- Tye KartyeAssists2
- Tye KartyePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Chandler Stephenson Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Kaapo Kakko Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Robert Thomas Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Jake Neighbours Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Eeli Tolvanen Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- P39:53Shane Wright Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (12), Tye Kartye (7)3–3
- P37:34Nick Leddy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (16), Mathieu Joseph (10)3–2
- P37:21Colton Parayko Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (58), Jordan Kyrou (34)2–2
- P36:44Mikey Eyssimont Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (6)1–2
- P31:06Radek Faksa Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Nathan Walker (8), Nick Leddy (3)1–1
- P23:44Jaden Schwartz Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:06Radek Faksa Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Nathan Walker (8), Nick Leddy (3)STL 1 – 1 SEA · STL 30% → 55% +25STL 30% → 55%+25 pts
- P36:44Mikey Eyssimont Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (6)STL 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 46% → 75% +29SEA 46% → 75%+29 pts
- P37:21Colton Parayko Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (58), Jordan Kyrou (34)STL 2 – 2 SEA · STL 24% → 54% +30STL 24% → 54%+30 pts
- P37:34Nick Leddy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (16), Mathieu Joseph (10)STL 3 – 2 SEA · STL 54% → 82% +28STL 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P39:53Shane Wright Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (12), Tye Kartye (7)STL 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 16% → 46% +30SEA 16% → 46%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML STL -155 / SEA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- STL: Elo 56.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- SEA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −18 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +45 Elo | STL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.9%24th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–20 | Road vs home | 17–2229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–34 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 39–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–0 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.