St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals2
- Radek FaksaAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints2
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists3
- Mason AppletonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:07Nathan Walker Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Alexey Toropchenko (1)3–5
- P316:47Adam Lowry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (1), Mason Appleton (5)2–5
- P218:51Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (4), Mason Appleton (4)2–4
- P211:05Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (1)2–3
- P26:06Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (5)2–2
- P18:39Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (2), Neal Pionk (1)1–2
- P13:42Nathan Walker Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Cam Fowler (8)1–1
- P11:23Kyle Connor Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (4), Mason Appleton (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:42Nathan Walker Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (3), Cam Fowler (8)STL 1 – 1 WPG · STL 26% → 39% +13STL 26% → 39%+13 pts
- P18:39Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Samberg (2), Neal Pionk (1)STL 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 61% → 75% +14WPG 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P26:06Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (5)STL 2 – 2 WPG · STL 24% → 41% +17STL 24% → 41%+17 pts
- P211:05Dylan DeMelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (1)STL 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 58% → 77% +19WPG 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P218:51Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (4), Mason Appleton (4)STL 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 78% → 92% +14WPG 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 61%
- ML STL +150 / WPG -175
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- WPG -159
- STL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +74 Elo | WPG 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.9%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 30–113rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–36 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 30–36 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 42–44 | 38–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–8 WPG in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Apr 27WPG 1 @ STL 5PlayoffsPicked WPG 54%Miss
- Apr 24WPG 2 @ STL 7PlayoffsPicked WPG 51%Miss
- Apr 21STL 1 @ WPG 2PlayoffsPicked WPG 64%Hit
- Apr 19STL 3 @ WPG 5PlayoffsPicked WPG 64%Hit
- Apr 7STL 1 @ WPG 3Picked WPG 64%Hit
- Feb 22WPG 4 @ STL 3Picked WPG 52%Hit
- Dec 3STL 4 @ WPG 1Picked WPG 66%Miss
- Oct 22WPG 3 @ STL 2Picked WPG 56%Hit