Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Cole PerfettiAssists1
- Dylan SambergPoints1
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Jake NeighboursAssists2
- Jake NeighboursPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:01Robert Thomas Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (1), Pavel Buchnevich (4)1–5
- P218:54Justin Faulk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (4), Brayden Schenn (1)1–4
- P217:23Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (2), Jake Neighbours (3)1–3
- P210:46Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (1), Alexandre Texier (1)1–2
- P119:37Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Cam Fowler (7)1–1
- P113:58Kyle Connor Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Cole Perfetti (2), Dylan Samberg (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:58Kyle Connor Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Cole Perfetti (2), Dylan Samberg (1)WPG 1 – 0 STL · WPG 54% → 70% +16WPG 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P119:37Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Colton Parayko (1), Cam Fowler (7)WPG 1 – 1 STL · STL 30% → 46% +17STL 30% → 46%+17 pts
- P210:46Tyler Tucker Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (1), Alexandre Texier (1)WPG 1 – 2 STL · STL 47% → 67% +20STL 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P217:23Brayden Schenn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (2), Jake Neighbours (3)WPG 1 – 3 STL · STL 70% → 87% +17STL 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P218:54Justin Faulk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (4), Brayden Schenn (1)WPG 1 – 4 STL · STL 88% → 96% +8STL 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML WPG -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 52.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +19 Elo | WPG 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3226–15 | Road vs home | 24–1714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–43 | 49–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 37–48 | 41–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 8–2 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Apr 24WPG 2 @ STL 7PlayoffsPicked WPG 51%Miss
- Apr 21STL 1 @ WPG 2PlayoffsPicked WPG 64%Hit
- Apr 19STL 3 @ WPG 5PlayoffsPicked WPG 64%Hit
- Apr 7STL 1 @ WPG 3Picked WPG 64%Hit
- Feb 22WPG 4 @ STL 3Picked WPG 52%Hit
- Dec 3STL 4 @ WPG 1Picked WPG 66%Miss
- Oct 22WPG 3 @ STL 2Picked WPG 56%Hit
- Feb 27STL 2 @ WPG 4Picked WPG 56%Hit