Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Jets

56-22-4

2–5

at

Home

Blues

44-30-8

WPG 49%STL 51%

You didn't pick this one.

Enterprise Center · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, FanDuel SN MW

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.

STL favored WPG favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3STL50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Scoring summary

  • P38:54Nino Niederreiter Goal (2) Poke, assists: Mason Appleton (6), Vladislav Namestnikov (2)2–5
  • P216:57Alexey Toropchenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (4)1–5
  • P213:40Cam Fowler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (4), Alexey Toropchenko (2)1–4
  • P212:27Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (5), Ryan Suter (1)1–3
  • P211:34Nathan Walker Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (1), Radek Faksa (3)1–2
  • P25:43Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Batted, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Josh Morrissey (3)1–1
  • P16:05Philip Broberg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (6), Jimmy Snuggerud (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P16:05Philip Broberg Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (6), Jimmy Snuggerud (2)WPG 0 – 1 STL · STL 51% → 66% +15
  2. P25:43Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Batted, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Josh Morrissey (3)WPG 1 – 1 STL · WPG 31% → 49% +18
  3. P211:34Nathan Walker Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (1), Radek Faksa (3)WPG 1 – 2 STL · STL 51% → 71% +20
  4. P212:27Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (5), Ryan Suter (1)WPG 1 – 3 STL · STL 71% → 86% +15
  5. P213:40Cam Fowler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (4), Alexey Toropchenko (2)WPG 1 – 4 STL · STL 87% → 95% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Blues 51%

Toss-upHit
WPG 49%STL 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
STL 51%
ML WPG -105 / STL -115
Pre-line forecast
STL 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
STL 48%
Ratings vs. market
−2.8 pts
STL: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
STL -104
WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WPG 2.7 – 2.8 STL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWPGSTLWhy
Team rating15811533Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+2WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWPG +12 EloWPG 51.7%
Market-implied ratingsWPG 52.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWPG 52.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSTL 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Winnipeg Jets and St. Louis Blues compared, with each team's league rank
WPGStatSTL
3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.113th of 32
1st of 322.3Goals allowed2.810th of 32
1st of 32+1.0Margin+0.312th of 32
8th of 3250.9%Shot share49.4%17th of 32
1st of 3292.2%Save percentage90.2%14th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 107–33rd of 32
1st of 3226–15Road vs home24–1714th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JetsBlues
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWPGSTL
Puck line43–4450–37
Last 104–66–4
Favorite31–3612–17
Underdog12–838–20
Overs–unders39–4843–44
Overs–unders, last 105–58–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WPG 9–3 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.