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St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

Final/2OTWPG wins series 4-3

Away

Blues

44-30-8

3–4

at

Home

Jets

56-22-4

STL 39%WPG 61%

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Canada Life Centre · TBS, HBO Max, FanDuel SN MW

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored STL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTWPG50%STL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blues
Jets

Scoring summary

  • 2OT16:10Adam Lowry Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (4), Kyle Connor (8)3–4
  • P319:57Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (7), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)3–3
  • P318:04Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (3), Dylan Samberg (3)3–2
  • P219:25Radek Faksa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (1)3–1
  • P211:41Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Neal Pionk (2)2–1
  • P17:16Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
  • P11:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Colton Parayko (5), Pavel Buchnevich (5)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:16Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 2 – 0 WPG · STL 55% → 69% +15
  2. P211:41Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Neal Pionk (2)STL 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 19% → 37% +18
  3. P219:25Radek Faksa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Walker (1)STL 3 – 1 WPG · STL 67% → 86% +18
  4. P319:57Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kyle Connor (7), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)STL 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 0% → 50% +50
  5. 2OT16:10Adam Lowry Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (4), Kyle Connor (8)STL 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 53% → 100% +47

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Jets 61%

LeanHit
STL 39%WPG 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
WPG 61%
ML STL +150 / WPG -175
Pre-line forecast
WPG 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WPG 60%
Ratings vs. market
−1.5 pts
WPG: Elo 59.9%, market 61.4%
Fair odds
WPG -159
STL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
STL 2.4 – 3.1 WPG
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSTLWPGWhy
Team rating15381576Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−1STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWPG +70 EloWPG 59.9%
Market-implied ratingsWPG 60.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWPG 60.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWPG 61.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
STLStatWPG
13th of 323.1Goals scored3.43rd of 32
10th of 322.8Goals allowed2.31st of 32
12th of 32+0.3Margin+1.01st of 32
17th of 3249.4%Shot share50.9%8th of 32
14th of 3290.2%Save percentage92.2%1st of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 107–33rd of 32
11th of 3220–21Road vs home30–113rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BluesJets
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSTLWPG
Puck line51–3743–45
Last 106–43–7
Favorite13–1731–36
Underdog38–2012–9
Overs–unders44–4440–48
Overs–unders, last 108–26–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

STL 4–9 WPG in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.