Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (1), Roman Josi (1)1–2
- P116:01Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (1), Denton Mateychuk (1)1–1
- P16:45Michael Bunting Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:45Michael Bunting Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1)CBJ 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 53% → 68% +15NSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P116:01Dmitri Voronkov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (1), Denton Mateychuk (1)CBJ 1 – 1 NSH · CBJ 31% → 47% +16CBJ 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P32:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (1), Roman Josi (1)CBJ 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 52% → 77% +25NSH 52% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML CBJ +105 / NSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 48.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | −1 | CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.48 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +13 Elo | CBJ 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.7%10th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–27 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 32 |
| 19th of 321494 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  CBJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–33 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 33–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.